Confidence & the cap

Every statement carries one number: how much the space trusts it right now. It is earned, never set — a new statement starts at 0.55 and moves only on what happens next. The numbers on this page are imported from the same module the engine reads; they cannot drift from the product.

what moves it nothing else does — there is no editor for this number

an outcome workeda session ran on the statement and the work landed — +0.15, the largest single move the record allows

a trap was avoidedthe statement steered a session around a known failure — +0.05

a repeat corroboratesthe same learning arrives from an independent source and merges as evidence, not a copy — +0.04

an outcome faileda session followed it and the work went wrong — −0.25, one failure outweighing a streak of successes on purpose

what does not move it being ignored is not evidence

A session that goes against a statement while it still stands changes nothing about the number. That is recorded as a divergence, and a divergence says what the session did, not whether the claim is true.

The distinction is load-bearing. If disobedience dropped confidence, a rule would grow quieter every time it was flouted, and go silent exactly where it was needed most. What a divergence earns instead is a second hearing: the statement returns on the session's next recall, marked, whatever that recall asks about.

Every move is a confidence event on the statement's chain — the arithmetic is on the record, recomputable in your browser from the chain page. The number is bounded at 0.02 and 0.99: nothing is ever certain, and nothing is ever quite dead while it is still readable.

the cap, worked computed at read — nothing is stored, nothing is frozen

While a statement is disputed it keeps serving, at

min(earned, 0.85). The earned figure keeps moving underneath; settle the dispute and the cap lifts by itself, because it was never written anywhere — it is applied at the moment of reading, every time.

the cap, in dataearned keeps climbing while the dispute is open

POST /api/v1/recall  { "intent": "how do retries behave" }

"text":       "The SDK retries failed charges automatically."
"confidence": 0.85        ← served: min(earned, 0.85)
"layer":      "team"

the floor a space's own dial — serving narrows, it never widens

Two more numbers complete the picture. A claim composed by the frontier — public asks that found no answer — enters at 0.2, far below a sourced statement's 0.55, deliberately: nothing has vouched for it yet. And forgetting is not a confidence move at all — a forgotten statement is deleted, with its evidence, not marked down.